Market Minute: Oil volatility, inflation concerns, and staying disciplined
March 23, 2026 | Investing
Welcome to LifeGuide’s Market Minute, where we recap what’s happening in the markets and how we stay grounded through it all.
What we’re watching…
- Oil volatility: The Strait of Hormuz (a channel for roughly 20% of the world’s oil) remains closed. Prices jumped above $100/barrel last week, then dropped back near $88 after reports of productive U.S.–Iran conversations. (Iran says otherwise, but for now, the markets seem to believe the optimism.)
- Interest rates holding steady: The Fed left rates unchanged and is signaling a continued pause. Many expected rate cuts this year, but war-driven “short-term” inflation has complicated that outlook. Even with potential leadership changes, the broader committee appears aligned, signaling that rates most likely won’t be moving anytime soon.
What you may be asking…
“I keep hearing about oil prices going up and down…how is this affecting my portfolio?”
The jury is still out on the correlation between stocks and oil. In the 70s, oil jumped and stocks fell. In the 90s, both increased together. What we are seeing is the impact on everyday costs. We have already seen the effects of oil on gas, but now we are going to see it in the supply chain (diesel going up is a pain point for truckers), transportation (airlines have estimated a reduction in flights due to the price of fuel), and various other goods produced by companies that will pass on the effects of inflation to consumers.
Because we can’t be sure of what stock prices are going to do next, it’s best to prepare rather than try to predict. We do that by creating an investment strategy for clients’ unique time horizons, withdrawal needs, and risk tolerances that employs the smart, disciplined investment principles of diversification and dynamic rebalancing.
“Why is gold falling now?”
The price of gold has been on an interesting ride lately. Just two months ago, it was trading around $5,300/oz. Now it’s down roughly 26% to about $4,400/oz. It did spike briefly when the conflict with Iran began on February 28 (which is pretty typical—investors often flock to gold in times of uncertainty). But now, we’re seeing the opposite. Investors are selling gold and moving back into other assets.
Why? Because they’re facing a bigger concern than uncertainty: inflation. While not every effect of the conflict with Iran is known yet, higher inflation appears more and more likely.
Historically, gold hasn’t been a strong performer in inflationary environments. It tends to hold value, not grow it. When inflation rises, investors often look for higher returns than gold can offer. With interest rates still elevated (and money market yields along with them) many are choosing either the safety of cash-like investments or the growth potential of stocks, rather than sitting in the middle with gold.
“What is LifeGuide doing to keep me on track?”
In seasons like this, we’re here to help you stay disciplined and objective. Emotionally driven decision-making can undo years of progress. If you’re a LifeGuide client, we’re actively monitoring the situation and have begun implementing the first step in our Buy the Dip process. Unexpected events and market volatility (like what we’re experiencing now) are part of investing and are accounted for in our clients’ plans. After all, unexpected events can be opportune times for those positioned to take advantage of market volatility.
(P.S. you can read more about our Buy the Dip & Sell the Recovery Progression strategies here.)
What we ground ourselves in…
“Refuse good advice and watch your plans fail; take good counsel and watch them succeed.”
—Proverbs 15:22
When life feels unsettled, it’s important to lean on someone you trust, who has a process you trust, to help you navigate it well. * We’re grateful for the trust our clients have placed in us to help them make wise decisions and navigate all types of markets. It’s a responsibility we don’t take lightly.
(*Seasons like this make LifeGuide’s investment principles and process all the more important!)
What we’re praying…
God of all wisdom, we acknowledge that you know more than any of us do. We acknowledge that you hold the world in your hands. We are thankful that we worship a good God who is bigger than us and is worthy of our confidence and trust. Strengthen our faith and forgive us when our trust wavers. Give us perspective. Grant us wisdom. Guide us in the work that we do—may our labor be effective and bring glory to you. In Jesus’ name we pray, Amen.